| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.9% | 84% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| logistic | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| Karen Khachanov | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1913 | 2273 |
| Surface Elo | 1913 | 2273 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Karen Khachanov |
| 05 May 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Karen Khachanov |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 24 Apr 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 23 May 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.22 | 82.0% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.60 | 21.7% | 26 Oct 06:15 |