OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-26
⚽ England League One · Saturday 26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Plymouth 2.40 0 - 1 1.00 Burton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 57.4%62%-4.3%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 81.2%85%-4.2%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 76.3%80%-3.4%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 74.6%60%+14.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 61.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.5%23.1%21.4%
xgboost61.2%17.4%21.4%
logistic64.3%22.1%13.6%
Inputs the models saw
PlymouthBurton
Elo (pre-match)16001471
Surface Elo16001471
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.00
Form trend-0.300.10
Season points per game3.001.00
Season goals for / game4.002.00
Season goals against / game2.002.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W1 W · 4 D
Plymouth: last 5
22 SepHCrystal Palace5 - 1W
19 SepABlackpool4 - 2W
19 SepABlackpool4 - 2W
12 SepHBarnsley3 - 0W
05 SepADoncaster3 - 2W
Burton: last 5
22 SepHNottingham Forest1 - 1D
19 SepHMansfield2 - 2D
19 SepHMansfield2 - 2D
12 SepAOxford0 - 3L
05 SepHCambridge2 - 2D
Head to head
04 Jan 2026Plymouth3 - 0Burton
27 Sep 2025Burton0 - 4Plymouth
29 Apr 2023Plymouth1 - 0Burton
19 Nov 2022Burton2 - 2Plymouth
09 Apr 2022Burton0 - 0Plymouth
09 Oct 2021Plymouth2 - 1Burton
17 Apr 2021Burton1 - 1Plymouth
10 Oct 2020Plymouth2 - 0Burton
29 Dec 2018Burton1 - 1Plymouth
20 Oct 2018Plymouth2 - 3Burton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.2019.2%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2523.5%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6162.1%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6759.9%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%25 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 20:30 UTC