| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 55% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.7% | 85% | -7.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.1% | 76% | -7.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 58% | -3.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.5% | 30.8% | 26.7% |
| xgboost | 52.4% | 28.5% | 19.2% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 28.3% | 23.6% |
| Arbroath | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1388 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1388 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 0.11 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.44 | 1.89 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Partick | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Partick | 0 - 3 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Queens Park | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Queens Park | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Raith Rovers FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Raith Rvs | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Inverness C | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Dunfermline | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Morton | 1 - 2 | Arbroath |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Morton | 2 - 1 | Arbroath |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Arbroath | 1 - 1 | Morton |
| 08 Nov 2025 | Morton | 1 - 0 | Arbroath |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Arbroath | 1 - 1 | Morton |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Arbroath | 1 - 2 | Morton |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Morton | 3 - 0 | Arbroath |
| 09 Dec 2023 | Arbroath | 1 - 2 | Morton |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Morton | 0 - 3 | Arbroath |
| 17 Mar 2023 | Arbroath | 1 - 1 | Morton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.65 | 60.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.72 | 58.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |