| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 42% | +10.0% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| logistic | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Valerio Aboian | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1669 | 1550 |
| Surface Elo | 1669 | 1550 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.18 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.53 | 65.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |