| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.6% | 51% | +2.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| logistic | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Flavio Cobolli | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1909 | 1824 |
| Surface Elo | 1909 | 1824 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Grigor Dimitrov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |