| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 87.8% | 93% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 92.1% | 7.8% |
| logistic | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| Benjamin Bonzi | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1811 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1811 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Yannick Hanfmann | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 May 2022 | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | Benjamin Bonzi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.30 | 13.7% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.07 | 93.5% | 09 Nov 06:15 |