| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.3% | 48% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 78% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.9% | 65% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 58% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.0% | 25.2% | 36.8% |
| xgboost | 48.6% | 25.8% | 25.5% |
| logistic | 41.3% | 29.0% | 29.7% |
| Cesena | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1407 | 1412 |
| Surface Elo | 1407 | 1412 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Modena | 0 - 3 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Padova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Padova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Palermo | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Cesena | 3 - 1 | Catanzaro |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Catanzaro | 2 - 0 | Cesena |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Catanzaro | 4 - 2 | Cesena |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Cesena | 2 - 0 | Catanzaro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.33 | 30.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |