| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.0% | 31% | +18.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 73.3% | 61% | +12.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.4% | 43% | +20.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.2% | 60% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.7% | 30.3% | 34.1% |
| xgboost | 29.0% | 32.1% | 38.9% |
| logistic | 24.6% | 27.5% | 47.8% |
| Ayr | Stenhousemuir | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1478 | 1664 |
| Surface Elo | 1478 | 1664 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Inverness C | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Partick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Morton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Raith Rvs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Arbroath | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Arbroath | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Partick | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Livingston | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Inverness C | 3 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |