| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.1% | 65% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| logistic | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Ozan Baris | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1528 | 1504 |
| Surface Elo | 1528 | 1504 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Alex Rybakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Dinko Dinev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Jun | H | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Ozan Baris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | Ozan Baris |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |