| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.9% | 57% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.2% | 43.8% |
| xgboost | 36.1% | 62.9% |
| logistic | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Minnesota Wild | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1578 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1578 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.33 | 3.73 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.17 | 3.07 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | San Jose Sharks | 4 - 1 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Washington Capitals | 5 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 3 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Chicago Blackhawks | 4 - 1 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Detroit Red Wings | 4 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 4 - 5 | L |
| 29 Oct | H | Winnipeg Jets | 6 - 4 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 2 | Minnesota Wild |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 - 3 | Minnesota Wild |
| 04 Mar 2026 | Minnesota Wild | 5 - 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Minnesota Wild | 5 - 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 24 Oct 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 4 | Minnesota Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.19 | 45.7% | 07 Nov 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 07 Nov 20:20 |