| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 41% | +5.8% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 74% | +0.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.3% | 56% | +4.9% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 49% | +9.5% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.0% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.8% | 27.4% | 35.9% |
| xgboost | 45.8% | 27.5% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 48.6% | 27.5% | 23.9% |
| Troyes | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1537 | 1567 |
| Surface Elo | 1537 | 1567 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Lens | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Lens | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Marseille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Auxerre | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Auxerre | 1 - 1 | D |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Troyes | 0 - 2 | Le Mans |
| 03 Oct 2025 | Le Mans | 2 - 2 | Troyes |
| 18 Oct 2019 | Troyes | 2 - 1 | Le Mans |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.03 | 33.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.58 | 27.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.44 | 41.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |