| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.6% | 65% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| logistic | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Daniel Rincon | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1628 | 1508 |
| Surface Elo | 1628 | 1508 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fausto Tabacco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Fausto Tabacco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Alexander Donski | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | Daniel Rincon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 05 Oct 06:15 |