| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.9% | 37% | +25.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.5% | 66% | +22.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 84.3% | 50% | +34.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 59% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 78.6% | 14.8% | 6.6% |
| xgboost | 53.5% | 29.1% | 17.4% |
| logistic | 74.4% | 18.4% | 7.2% |
| Atlético Madrid | Zaragoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1772 | 1342 |
| Surface Elo | 1772 | 1342 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 133 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | CDA Navalcarnero | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | UB Conquense | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Real Madrid | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | CD Teruel | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Cartagena | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 May | H | Malaga | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | A | Las Palmas | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 May | H | Sp Gijon | 1 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |