| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.9% | 56% | -2.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.6% | 83% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.5% | 75% | -4.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 49.3% | 57% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 49.5% | 26.5% | 24.0% |
| logistic | 57.9% | 25.4% | 16.7% |
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1516 | 1442 |
| Surface Elo | 1516 | 1442 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Nov | A | Benfica | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Mortagua FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | AD Nogueirense | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Estrela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Estrela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Santa Clara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Alverca | 3 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | Alverca |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 07 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 07 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 07 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 07 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 07 Nov 18:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.47 | 22.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.58 | 27.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.69 | 59.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |