| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.4% | 56% | -5.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.3% | 80% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.4% | 73% | -6.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 65% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.3% | 29.7% | 24.0% |
| xgboost | 51.2% | 23.3% | 25.5% |
| logistic | 45.2% | 27.0% | 27.8% |
| Werder Bremen | Paderborn | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1572 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1572 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 2 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Augsburg | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | FC Koln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | RB Leipzig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Stuttgart | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Stuttgart | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | DC United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Paderborn | 3 - 4 | Werder Bremen |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Werder Bremen | 1 - 4 | Paderborn |
| 13 Jun 2020 | Paderborn | 1 - 5 | Werder Bremen |
| 08 Dec 2019 | Werder Bremen | 0 - 1 | Paderborn |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.26 | 23.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.21 | 23.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |