| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.8% | 68% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 42.3% | 57.6% |
| logistic | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Olle Wallin | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1424 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1424 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Pedro Rodenas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Matthew William Donald | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jun | H | Tobias Kamke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Apr | A | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 05 Oct 06:15 |