| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.9% | 28% | +24.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.7% | 82% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.9% | 36% | +29.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 64% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 20.5% | 22.8% | 56.6% |
| xgboost | 31.8% | 23.8% | 44.4% |
| logistic | 30.9% | 27.4% | 41.6% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1753 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1753 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 18 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Wycombe | 3 - 3 | D |
| 02 Sep | A | Wigan | 1 - 3 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Bromley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Sunderland | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Leeds | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |