| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 60% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.0% | 86% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.9% | 80% | -7.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 49% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.2% | 23.1% | 16.7% |
| xgboost | 58.2% | 23.6% | 18.2% |
| logistic | 57.4% | 25.1% | 17.5% |
| Grimsby | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1517 | 1361 |
| Surface Elo | 1517 | 1361 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Notts County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Shrewsbury | 1 - 1 | Grimsby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 03 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |