| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.8% | 50% | +13.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 86.9% | 80% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.6% | 65% | +11.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 74% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 64.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.5% | 23.7% | 26.8% |
| xgboost | 41.2% | 24.3% | 34.5% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1720 | 1710 |
| Surface Elo | 1720 | 1710 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Union Berlin | 4 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Elversberg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May | H | Hamburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 May | A | Stuttgart | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Hamburg | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Freiburg | 1 - 4 | L |
| 09 May | H | St Pauli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 May 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 20 Dec 2025 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 25 Jan 2025 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 3 | RB Leipzig |
| 20 Jan 2024 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 2 | RB Leipzig |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 0 | RB Leipzig |
| 29 Oct 2022 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 17 Apr 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 28 Nov 2021 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 20 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.25 | 80.0% | 20 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.00 | 25.0% | 20 Sep 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.55 | 28.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.37 | 22.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Sep 06:16 |