| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.7% | 73% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| logistic | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Fabian Marozsan | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1759 | 1819 |
| Surface Elo | 1759 | 1819 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Sebastian Sorger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Timofey Skatov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Timofey Skatov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Zachary Svajda | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Fabian Marozsan | 0 - 2 | Tomas Machac |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Fabian Marozsan | 0 - 2 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |