| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.3% | 70% | -14.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.9% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 52.9% |
| logistic | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Washington Capitals | Philadelphia Flyers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 0.21 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.40 | 1.93 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.20 | 3.29 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Los Angeles Kings | 2 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | New Jersey Devils | 4 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Montréal Canadiens | 5 - 4 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 4 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Columbus Blue Jackets | 3 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Anaheim Ducks | 4 - 5 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Buffalo Sabres | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Ottawa Senators | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Washington Capitals | 6 - 4 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 1 | Washington Capitals |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 04 Feb 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 2 | Washington Capitals |
| 20 Mar 2025 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 2 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 07 Feb 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 - 4 | Washington Capitals |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Washington Capitals | 6 - 3 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 22 Oct 2024 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 4 | Washington Capitals |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 28 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 3.03 | 33.0% | 28 Oct 19:20 |