| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.6% | 68% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 42.2% | 57.7% |
| logistic | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Marvin Moeller | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1696 | 1739 |
| Surface Elo | 1696 | 1739 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Miguel Damas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | Matej Dodig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |