| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 56% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.2% | 81% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.8% | 74% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 60% | +1.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.9% | 21.7% | 61.4% |
| xgboost | 26.0% | 21.7% | 52.3% |
| logistic | 26.7% | 27.1% | 46.2% |
| Monza | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1772 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1772 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Cagliari | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Cagliari | 4 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Cagliari | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Roma | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Roma | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Spezia | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Bodoe/Glimt | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Venezia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Monza | 0 - 1 | Napoli |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Napoli | 2 - 0 | Monza |
| 07 Apr 2024 | Monza | 2 - 4 | Napoli |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Napoli | 0 - 0 | Monza |
| 14 May 2023 | Monza | 2 - 0 | Napoli |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Napoli | 4 - 0 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.57 | 63.7% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 5.50 | 18.2% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.80 | 55.6% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.09 | 24.4% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.52 | 22.1% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |