| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 51% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.4% | 80% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 70% | +4.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 52% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.0% | 26.2% | 25.7% |
| xgboost | 51.8% | 31.7% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 63.8% | 23.6% | 12.6% |
| York | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.55 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.73 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |