| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | 57% | +1.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.0% | 33.9% |
| logistic | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Jiri Lehecka | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1990 | 1995 |
| Surface Elo | 1990 | 1995 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | Rafael Jodar |
| 09 Aug 2026 | Jiri Lehecka | 0 - 2 | Rafael Jodar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |