| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.6% | 61% | -2.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.0% | 41.2% |
| xgboost | 35.4% | 63.7% |
| logistic | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New Jersey Devils | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1597 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1597 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.56 | 3.65 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 4 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 5 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Calgary Flames | 2 - 5 | L |
| 08 Nov | A | New York Islanders | 5 - 4 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | St. Louis Blues | 5 - 4 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Edmonton Oilers | 4 - 3 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 5 - 2 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | Colorado Avalanche | 2 - 5 | L |
| 05 Mar 2026 | New Jersey Devils | 4 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 0 | New Jersey Devils |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 5 | New Jersey Devils |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 3 | New Jersey Devils |
| 11 Dec 2024 | New Jersey Devils | 1 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 10 Oct 2024 | New Jersey Devils | 2 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.41 | 41.5% | 08 Nov 23:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 08 Nov 23:20 |