| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 69% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.6% | 89% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.7% | 85% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 78% | -10.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 66.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.9% | 20.4% | 22.7% |
| xgboost | 56.4% | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 63.0% | 23.4% | 13.6% |
| RB Leipzig | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1702 | 1585 |
| Surface Elo | 1702 | 1585 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Real Madrid | 1 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bayern München | 1 - 6 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bayern München | 1 - 6 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Augsburg | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 24 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 24 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 24 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.29 | 77.5% | 24 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.40 | 15.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.85 | 17.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.28 | 78.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.90 | 25.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |