| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.4% | 62% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.2% | 37.7% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Kai Wehnelt | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1382 | 1401 |
| Surface Elo | 1382 | 1401 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 14 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |