| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.1% | 39% | +8.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 79% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.2% | 53% | +8.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 47% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.8% | 26.9% | 41.3% |
| xgboost | 25.6% | 28.5% | 45.9% |
| logistic | 28.8% | 27.0% | 44.2% |
| Kidderminster | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1441 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1441 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.15 | 2.08 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| Rest days | 14 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Solihull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Carlisle | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Carlisle | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Sutton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Sutton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Solihull | 5 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Solihull | 5 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.63 | 38.0% | 24 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.38 | 42.0% | 24 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 24 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |