| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.4% | 74% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| logistic | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1463 | 1698 |
| Surface Elo | 1463 | 1698 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 6 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.43 | 69.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |