| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.3% | 65% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.0% | 34.9% |
| logistic | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Gabriel Debru | Erik Arutiunian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1642 | 1515 |
| Surface Elo | 1642 | 1515 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | H | Alex Rybakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jenson Brooksby | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Erik Arutiunian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Rybakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Andres Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aidan Mchugh | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Gabriel Debru | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Erik Arutiunian | 0 - 2 | Gabriel Debru |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |