| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 40.5% | 59.4% |
| logistic | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Tomas Machac | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1823 | 2037 |
| Surface Elo | 1823 | 2037 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 1 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Fabian Marozsan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Apr 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||