| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.8% | 52% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.2% | 80% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.7% | 70% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 57% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.1% | 29.2% | 32.8% |
| xgboost | 46.3% | 28.5% | 25.2% |
| logistic | 44.0% | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| Kelty Hearts | Forfar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1365 | 1366 |
| Surface Elo | 1365 | 1366 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 13 Oct | A | East Kilbride | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Stirling | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Stirling | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Spartans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Spartans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Ross County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Elgin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Elgin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Dumbarton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Dumbarton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Forfar | 1 - 0 | Kelty Hearts |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Kelty Hearts | 1 - 1 | Forfar |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Forfar | 1 - 0 | Kelty Hearts |
| 13 Nov 2021 | Kelty Hearts | 1 - 0 | Forfar |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Forfar | 2 - 2 | Kelty Hearts |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |