| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 63% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| logistic | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Lucio Ratti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1525 | 1463 |
| Surface Elo | 1525 | 1463 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Federico Zeballos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Federico Coria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | Lucio Ratti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |