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Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished

Washington Commanders – 13 - 30 – Indianapolis Colts

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	53.8%	36%	+17.5%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	53.8%	46.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Washington Commanders	Indianapolis Colts
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.00
form diff	0.25
rest diff	0.00
home field	0.00
point diff	0.20
opponent strength diff	-0.02
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T13:30:00+00:00

Washington Commanders: last 5

27 Sep	H	Seattle Seahawks	33 - 31	W
20 Sep	A	Dallas Cowboys	20 - 37	L
13 Sep	A	Philadelphia Eagles	22 - 24	L
04 Jan	A	Philadelphia Eagles	24 - 17	W
25 Dec	H	Dallas Cowboys	23 - 30	L

Indianapolis Colts: last 5

27 Sep	H	Houston Texans	19 - 17	W
21 Sep	A	Kansas City Chiefs	30 - 33	L
13 Sep	H	Baltimore Ravens	23 - 41	L
04 Jan	A	Houston Texans	30 - 38	L
28 Dec	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	17 - 23	L

Head to head

30 Oct 2022	Indianapolis Colts	16 - 17	Washington Commanders
16 Sep 2018	Washington Commanders	9 - 21	Indianapolis Colts
30 Nov 2014	Indianapolis Colts	49 - 27	Washington Commanders
18 Oct 2010	Washington Commanders	24 - 27	Indianapolis Colts
22 Oct 2006	Indianapolis Colts	36 - 22	Washington Commanders
28 Oct 2002	Washington Commanders	26 - 21	Indianapolis Colts

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.80	35.7%	04 Oct 09:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.48	67.6%	04 Oct 09:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC