| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 65% | -12.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Ozan Baris | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1514 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1514 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 49 | 35 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Dinko Dinev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Jun | H | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Blake Ellis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Charles Broom | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Fares Zakaria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Apr | H | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |