| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.3% | 59% | +1.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| logistic | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Mattia Bellucci | Kamil Majchrzak | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1768 | 1802 |
| Surface Elo | 1768 | 1802 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Kamil Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Zsombor Piros | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Hamad Medjedovic | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | Christopher O'Connell | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Kamil Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | Mattia Bellucci |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.75 | 57.1% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |