OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ Scottish Championship · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Arbroath 0.00 4 - 1 1.40 Ayr
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 42.0%42%-0.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 73.2%77%-4.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 56.7%59%-2.4%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 56.0%59%-2.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 54.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson30.8%31.0%38.2%
xgboost31.7%25.0%43.3%
logistic32.3%29.1%38.5%
Inputs the models saw
ArbroathAyr
Elo (pre-match)14731490
Surface Elo14731490
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.001.40
Form trend0.00-0.30
Season points per game0.851.25
Season goals for / game0.541.08
Season goals against / game1.691.17
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Arbroath: last 5
03 NovHQueen of the South FC1 - 0W
31 OctHRaith Rovers FC0 - 4L
31 OctHRaith Rvs0 - 4L
24 OctALivingston0 - 1L
24 OctALivingston0 - 1L
Ayr: last 5
03 NovAAnnan Athletic2 - 0W
31 OctHQueens Park3 - 2W
31 OctHQueens Park3 - 2W
16 OctHPartick0 - 1L
16 OctHPartick0 - 1L
Head to head
01 Aug 2026Ayr2 - 0Arbroath
11 Apr 2026Ayr1 - 0Arbroath
03 Mar 2026Arbroath1 - 1Ayr
15 Nov 2025Ayr1 - 1Arbroath
01 Aug 2025Arbroath1 - 1Ayr
13 Apr 2024Ayr5 - 0Arbroath
23 Jan 2024Ayr2 - 0Arbroath
13 Jan 2024Arbroath0 - 0Ayr
02 Sep 2023Arbroath2 - 1Ayr
31 Mar 2023Arbroath2 - 0Ayr
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.2544.4%07 Nov 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.2031.2%07 Nov 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.8834.7%07 Nov 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1047.6%07 Nov 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.7058.8%07 Nov 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.4540.8%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2530.8%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.9533.9%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.1047.6%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7158.5%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:02 UTC