| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.8% | 41% | +4.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.2% | 79% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 55.9% | 56% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 59% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.0% | 25.4% | 47.6% |
| xgboost | 39.7% | 26.1% | 34.2% |
| logistic | 40.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Dijon | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1439 | 1479 |
| Surface Elo | 1439 | 1479 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 23 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Annecy | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Laval | 3 - 2 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Boulogne | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | St Etienne | 2 - 3 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Saint-Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | St Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Sep | A | Red Star | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Rodez | 4 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Annecy | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Dijon | 0 - 0 | Metz |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Metz | 1 - 2 | Dijon |
| 02 May 2021 | Dijon | 1 - 5 | Metz |
| 08 Nov 2020 | Metz | 1 - 1 | Dijon |
| 21 Dec 2019 | Dijon | 2 - 2 | Metz |
| 13 Jan 2018 | Dijon | 1 - 1 | Metz |
| 21 Oct 2017 | Metz | 1 - 2 | Dijon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 12 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 12 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 12 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 12 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 12 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |