| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.5% | 75% | -15.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| logistic | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Sebastian Baez | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1761 | 1826 |
| Surface Elo | 1761 | 1826 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Juncheng Shang | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Juncheng Shang | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Sebastian Baez | 0 - 2 | Valentin Vacherot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.34 | 74.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.45 | 29.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |