| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.5% | 68% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| logistic | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| Johan Nikles | Vladyslav Orlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1503 | 1321 |
| Surface Elo | 1503 | 1321 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Miguel Damas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Guilherme Valdoleiros | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Michael Geerts | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | Mili Poljicak | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Apr | A | Sergey Fomin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Nicolas Mejia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep 2024 | Johan Nikles | 2 - 1 | Vladyslav Orlov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |