| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.1% | 62% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 56.5% |
| logistic | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Matteo Martineau | Mika Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1609 | 1684 |
| Surface Elo | 1609 | 1684 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.18 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.55 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Max Schoenhaus | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Jerome Kym | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Domenc, Mathys | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Matteo Martineau | 1 - 2 | Mika Brunold |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.62 | 61.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |