| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.0% | 61% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.0% | 86% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.0% | 80% | -6.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 63% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.0% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 23.7% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 55.9% | 23.4% | 20.7% |
| Carlisle | Woking | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1533 | 1440 |
| Surface Elo | 1533 | 1440 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.78 | 1.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Forest Green | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Southend | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 15 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Altrincham | 5 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Hartlepool | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Carlisle | 1 - 3 | Woking |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Woking | 0 - 2 | Carlisle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.33 | 23.1% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.60 | 21.7% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |