| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.5% | 57% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.3% | 85% | -7.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.8% | 77% | -10.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 51% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.9% | 25.6% | 27.6% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 27.4% | 24.4% |
| logistic | 52.3% | 25.8% | 21.9% |
| Estrela | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1467 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1467 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 0.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.88 | 2.13 |
| Rest days | 12 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | AD Fazendense | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | UD Sousense | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | AD Castro Daire | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Santa Clara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Santa Clara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Porto | 1 - 4 | L |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Estrela | 4 - 0 | Casa Pia |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 3 - 5 | Estrela |
| 09 Feb 2025 | Casa Pia | 1 - 0 | Estrela |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Estrela | 0 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 08 Mar 2024 | Estrela | 3 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 08 Oct 2023 | Casa Pia | 0 - 1 | Estrela |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 24 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 24 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 24 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 24 Oct 15:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.98 | 20.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.79 | 26.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |