| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.2% | 43% | +6.7% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.9% | 71% | +4.8% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.1% | 58% | +6.8% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 49% | +4.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.8% | 24.8% | 23.5% |
| xgboost | 44.0% | 27.1% | 28.9% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 28.7% | 25.5% |
| Swindon | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1446 | 1353 |
| Surface Elo | 1446 | 1353 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Barnet | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Barnet | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Newport County | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Newport County | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |