OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Birmingham 2.00 3 - 0 1.40 QPR
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.1%50%+0.5%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 76.7%78%-1.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.6%68%-1.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.6%51%+2.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 53.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson46.8%27.0%26.1%
xgboost46.5%29.3%24.2%
logistic48.0%26.5%25.5%
Inputs the models saw
BirminghamQPR
Elo (pre-match)16071538
Surface Elo16071538
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.60-0.40
Season points per game1.701.70
Season goals for / game1.701.50
Season goals against / game1.100.90
Rest days32
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Birmingham: last 5
13 OctHPreston4 - 0W
13 OctHPreston North End4 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
19 SepHMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
QPR: last 5
14 OctHDerby4 - 1W
14 OctHDerby4 - 1W
09 OctAWest Ham1 - 1D
09 OctAWest Ham1 - 1D
09 OctASouthampton1 - 5L
Head to head
11 Mar 2026Birmingham1 - 0QPR
09 Dec 2025QPR2 - 1Birmingham
29 Mar 2024QPR2 - 1Birmingham
22 Sep 2023Birmingham0 - 0QPR
18 Mar 2023QPR0 - 1Birmingham
28 Oct 2022Birmingham2 - 0QPR
02 Jan 2022Birmingham1 - 2QPR
28 Sep 2021QPR2 - 0Birmingham
27 Feb 2021Birmingham2 - 1QPR
24 Oct 2020QPR0 - 0Birmingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.7526.7%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.9152.4%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8554.0%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0050.0%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.6827.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6427.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0748.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8653.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9950.2%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC