| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.8% | 87% | -26.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.6% | 23.3% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Mateus Alves | Jose Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1497 | 1443 |
| Surface Elo | 1497 | 1443 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 4 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Ryan Dickerson | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Rafael Tosetto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.10 | 19.6% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |