| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.5% | 75% | -12.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| logistic | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Naomi Osaka | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1877 | 1689 |
| Surface Elo | 1877 | 1689 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 21 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Iva Jovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Anhelina Kalinina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Iva Jovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Anhelina Kalinina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Sonay Kartal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Jasmine Paolini | 2 - 1 | Naomi Osaka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |