| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.8% | 60% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Filippo Romano | Harry Wendelken | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Ryan Peniston | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Harry Wendelken | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Kenny De Schepper | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Raul Brancaccio | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Raul Brancaccio | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 3 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | Harry Wendelken |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.68 | 59.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |