| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.4% | 68% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| logistic | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Marvin Moeller | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1679 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1679 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 11 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Mert Alkaya | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | Tiago Torres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 07 Oct 06:15 |